Chinese New Year 2026: The Inventory Guide for DTC Brands

Chinese New Year (CNY) includes about 16 days of celebrations across Asia, and many factories plan a temporary slowdown as part of their annual schedules. Lunar New Year 2026 begins on February 17, 2026, and welcomes the Year of the Horse.

For DTC brands, this creates a defined window to align inventory needs, production timing, and freight plans. In this guide, we outline the CNY 2026 timeline and provide practical steps to prepare early, maintain consistent stock, and support production with strategic capital.

How Factory Closures Affect Ecommerce Inventory Planning

Most suppliers start slowing work around February 12th, and the official holiday period runs from February 15th to 23rd. Production becomes less predictable as factories rush to finish existing orders, and freight carriers often give priority to larger shipments. It helps to reserve cargo space early, split shipments when useful, and prepare for transport costs to rise about 20% to 30% leading into the holiday.

Once factories in Asia enter their pre-holiday surge, attention shifts to clearing existing commitments, and timelines become harder to lock in. Many teams still underestimate how early they need to finalize orders and capital. Planning in advance keeps you out of the backlog and ready to meet demand while others wait for production to restart. Missing the  cutoff means not seeing restocks until late February or the beginning of March, making recovery difficult while trying to build a strong Q1 and meet demand.

How to Manage Cash Flow Pressure During Peak Season

Q4 is lucrative but expensive for brands. Seasonal ads, rising fulfillment costs, and bigger merchandise orders stack up fast. Total U.S. media ad spending for all of 2025 is forecast at 422 billion dollars, which shows how quickly budgets disappear during the holiday push. At the same time, Q1 production deposits start coming due. To remain ahead of Chinese New Year timelines, teams often need to pay for next quarter’s inventory while they are still wrapping up costs from the current one.

That timing gap leaves many founders short right when they need the most flexibility. Having access to extra capital and founder friendly funding helps you secure production without slowing holiday traction. It keeps supply strategy on track and gives you space to make confident decisions during one of the busiest moments of the year.

The Risks of Last-Minute Inventory Decisions

When you don’t plan for CNY, the slowdown catches up with you fast. Production stalls, factories shut down longer than expected, and lead times quietly creep up before anyone on your team can react. By the time CNY approaches, manufacturing capacity is gone and freight options shrink, pushing teams into expensive last minute choices just to keep product moving. Marketplace sellers feel it even harder because about 42% of Amazon sellers have reported losing their Buy Box after stockouts or shipping delays.

The consequences extend far beyond a single delayed shipment. The ripple hits your entire business. Your sales rhythm breaks, cash conversion slows, and demand becomes harder to forecast with confidence. Marketing efficiency drops as you pull back on spend to avoid overselling. Team bandwidth shifts from growth to crisis-management. Q1, your first and most strategic quarter, turns reactive instead of opportunity-driven. 

These outcomes happen every year, and they disproportionately impact brands that rely on momentum from BFCM and holiday peaks. Missing the window to secure inventory and freight early means paying more, waiting longer, and giving competitors room to take market share. The brands that stay ahead plan early, fund early, and buy early so when everyone else is scrambling to restock, they’re already capitalizing on lower CPAs, faster delivery promises, and uninterrupted sales velocity.

Act early to avoid the scramble. Protect your margins and keep full control of your growth while others are still trying to recover from the holiday season.

Your Month-by-Month Timeline for Early 2026 Production

November 2025

This is the month to take control. If your lead times run longer than ten weeks, November is when you should have placed POs to secure your factory’s production slot. It’s also when brands line up capital ahead of the cash-flow crunch that follows Black Friday and Cyber Monday. November is the time to confirm supplier closures and build in buffer for QC or transit issues. 

Use November to confirm supplier holiday closures, negotiate timelines, and build buffer for hiccups or transit delays. This is the month where operational clarity directly translates into Q1 stability.

December 2025

December is the final clean operational window before the full holiday and CNY surge. This is when production timelines tighten, logistics space fills, and cutoffs start to matter.

Key regional milestones:

• Vietnam:
  
  • PO cutoff: December 1
  • Final manufacturing: December 10
• Shanghai: 
  
  • PO cutoff: December 22
  • Final manufacturing: January 5

By early December, freight and container availability start disappearing quickly as global suppliers race to send final shipments before CNY. If you don’t book freight before mid-month, you risk sliding into premium pricing or missing vessel availability altogether.

January 2026

January tests your preparation. Production lines begin slowing as factory workers leave early, and suppliers become harder to reach. If you need product before CNY, ship before February 11, or your inventory will sit until late February or early March.

Stay closely aligned with freight partners, customs brokers, and 3PLs. Capacity changes and operational bottlenecks are common this month, and brands that stay connected can pivot quickly.  

February 2026

Factories will close from February 12 through 23, 2026, and the shutdown impacts more than production alone. Communication delays appear and freight movement nearly stops. Even after factories reopen, it takes days for production lines to restart and ports to clear. 

First deliveries usually restart around February 27, although backlogs often push arrivals into early March. Brands that don’t plan for this gap face stockouts, stalled campaigns, and unpredictable revenue. Build inventory buffers now and schedule your marketing around realistic arrival windows to keep sales stable through the downtime.

March 2026

March is your operational reset window. With factories returning to full capacity, you can replenish inventory to capture post-holiday production capacity, stabilize your supply chain, and re-forecast demand with the clarity of Q1 performance data. 

This is also the month to submit reorders early to capture limited post-holiday production availability before summer demand ramps. Brands that move quickly secure better timelines, negotiate stronger terms, and maintain velocity while slower competitors are still recovering from CNY and holiday whiplash.

How Clearco Helps Founders Fund Inventory Ahead of Chinese New Year 2026

CNY 2026 preparation is significantly easier when you are not forced to choose between holiday growth and early Q1 production. Clearco gives founders access to capital that moves with their business. This includes flexible ecommerce funding and growth capital that supports Q1 inventory ahead of factory closures while still allowing teams to invest in Q4 ads and peak season growth.

With Clearco, founders can confidently cover manufacturing deposits upfront, stay stocked through the CNY slowdown, and maintain a healthy cash position as timelines get tighter. Clearco’s capital model adapts to performance and provides truly non-dilutive capital with no personal guarantees and no rigid payment structures. The result: founders enter Q1 with inventory secured, cash flow protected, and the ability to operate from a position of control rather than compromise.